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Michael Lynch's Biography
PAST PROJECTS
SELECTED
PUBLICATIONS
PROFESSIONAL ACTIVITIES
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Mr. Lynch has over twenty years of experience analyzing international energy, particularly oil and gas markets. He has numerous publications in four languages and speaks regularly at international conferences. He is the primary author of Global Petroleum SEER and Global Petroleum Outlook, which provide short- and long-term oil market analyses.
Mr. Lynch's previous work has included computer modeling of the world oil market and estimation of the economics of supply for both world oil and natural gas, including LNG supply, and market behavior under normal and disrupted conditions. He has also given testimony and advice to committees of the U.S. Congress and the United Nations, the World Bank and the International Energy Agency.
Before coming to Strategic Energy & Economic Consulting , Inc., Mr. Lynch was Vice President of Oil Services at WEFA, Inc. Prior to coming to WEFA he was Director, Asian Energy and Security, at the Center for International Studies, M.I.T., as well as a Lecturer in the Diplomatic Training Program at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University. Prior to that, he held a number of research positions at M.I.T., as well as serving as a senior associate for the Washington International Energy Group. His work consisted primarily of advising corporations, governments and industry associations on world oil and gas markets and energy security policy.
PAST PROJECTS
Analysis of the nature of oil crises and effective policy responses
Developed the long-term oil market forecast for the Gas Research Institute
Provided assistance in scenario planning for several large oil corporations
Explained the nature of errors in long-term oil market forecasting (Lynch 1994)
Analyzed the economics of N. American natural gas supply for a multi-client study
Correctly predicted the development of the oil market in the 1990s (Lynch 1989)
Predicted the most likely behavior in the 1990 Gulf War oil crisis (Lynch 1986b, 1987)
Explained the nature of the 1986 oil price collapse and correctly predicted the persistence of price volatility (Lynch (1986a)
Advised the Secretary-General of OPEC on long-term oil prices
Analyzed world natural gas supply for a 3-volume multi-sponsor study
Produced the best long-term oil market forecast at Energy Modeling Forum 6 (1980)
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SELECTED PUBLICATIONS
Mr. Lynch is particularly known for his record of producing the best long-term oil and gas market forecasts, including the IPE model at EMF6 (1980) and his 1989 Economist Intelligence Unit report, both of which were criticized at the time for being optimistic about non-OPEC oil supply and relatively pessimistic about oil prices. His 1992/94 paper explaining the errors in oil market forecasting convinced many major oil companies to change their forecasts. His analysis of world gas supply in the mid-1980s correctly foresaw that depletion would not be pushing prices up in the U.S. or W. Europe, and his work in 1986 on oil market structure anticipated the shift to price volatility and his 1986/87 analyses of oil crises correctly predicted that the next of future crises.
"Oil scarcity, Oil crises, and alternative energies--don't be fooled again," Applied Energy, Vol. 64, no. 1-4, September-December 1999.
"The Debate Over Oil Supply: Science or Religion?" Geopolitics of Energy, August 1999.
"Doing Well by Doing Good? Oil Industry Responses to the Kyoto Accord," Occasional Paper 31, The International Research Center for Energy and Economic Development, Boulder, Colorado, 1999.
"Facing the Elephant: Oil Market Evolution and Future Oil Crises," Occasional Paper 30, The International Research Center for Energy and Economic Development, Boulder, Colorado, 1998.
"Asian Natural Gas: Boom and Bust?" in Energy Watchers VIII, The International Research Center for Energy and Economic Development, Boulder, Colorado, 1997.
International Petroleum Price, Supply and Demand: Projections Through 2020, Gas Research Institute, January 1996.
"The Analysis and Forecasting of Petroleum Supply: Sources of Error and Bias," in Energy Watchers VII, ed. by Dorothea H. El Mallakh, International Research Center for Energy and Economic Development, 1996.
"Shoulder Against Shoulder: The Evolution of Oil Industry Strategy," Journal of Energy and Development, Volume XIX, number 1, 1995.
"Bias and Theoretical Error in Long-Term Oil Market Forecasting," in Advances in the Economics of Energy and Natural Resources, John R. Moroney, ed., JAI Press, 1994.
"A Post-OPEC World? The Long-Term Impact of the 1990 Oil Crisis," Journal of Economic Democracy, July-September 1991.
"An Omitted Variable in OECD Supply Forecasting," 12th Annual North American Conference, International Association of Energy Economics, Ottawa Canada, October 1990.
"The Price of Crude Oil to 2000: The Economics of the Oil Market," Economist Intelligence Unit, May 1989
"The Next Oil Crisis," Technology Review, November-December 1987.
"Asian Gas Markets in Coming Years," in Crisis in Resource Production: Can America Compete?, Proceedings of the Sixth Annual International Conference on Alaska's Resources, Anchorage, Alaska, February 12-13, 1986.
"Structural Changes in World Oil Markets and Their Impact on Market Behavior," MIT Energy Laboratory Working Paper MIT-EL 86-009WP, March 1986.
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PROFESSIONAL ACTIVITIES
President, United States Association for Energy Economics (1999)
Appointed Council Member, International Association for Energy Economics (1998-1999)
President, New England Chapter, International Association for Energy Economics (1987-1992)
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